17
Independence Assumptions
Forecasting: Lecture Notes
Preface
1
Course Overview
2
Why Care About Forecasting?
3
Scoring Rules
4
Estimation 101
5
Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
6
Base Rates and Reference Classes
7
The “Other” Option
8
Reading - The Inner Game of Forecasting
9
Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
10
Combining Forecasts (Part 2)
11
Common Probability Distributions
12
Prioritizing Information
13
Turning Considerations Into Probabilities
14
Cognitive Biases
15
Information Hygiene
16
Beliefs Across Time
17
Independence Assumptions
18
Kelly Betting
17
Independence Assumptions
Author
Jean-Stanislas Denain, Jacob Steinhardt
Notes tbd
16
Beliefs Across Time
18
Kelly Betting