Forecasting: Lecture Notes

Forecasting: Lecture Notes

Preface
1 Course Overview
2 Why Care About Forecasting?
3 Scoring Rules
4 Estimation 101
5 Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
6 Base Rates and Reference Classes
7 The “Other” Option
8 Reading - The Inner Game of Forecasting
9 Combining Forecasts (Part 1)
10 Combining Forecasts (Part 2)
11 Common Probability Distributions
12 Prioritizing Information
13 Turning Considerations Into Probabilities
14 Cognitive Biases
15 Information Hygiene
16 Beliefs Across Time
17 Independence Assumptions
18 Kelly Betting

Table of contents

Preface

Forecasting: Lecture Notes

Author

Jacob Steinhardt

Published

January 19, 2023

Preface

This book contains the lecture notes for the class STAT 157/260: Forecasting.

1 Course Overview